29 août 2007
''Bulgaria, U.S. Bases and Black Sea Geopolitics''
he USS Forest Sherman, a guided missile destroyer of the Sixth Fleet, visited the Bulgarian port of Varna in early August and carried out joint naval exercises with the Bulgarian navy. This event would normally be seen as routine. However, the announcement of an American troop deployment to a number of Bulgarian military facilities (as well as in Romania) has raised concerns in two traditional hegemons of the Black Sea region: the Russian Federation and Turkey.
The developing security relations between Washington and Sofia, therefore, add a new dimension to the routine visit of the American destroyer, as it signifies the United States' "arrival" in the Black Sea.
U.S.-Bulgarian Alliance?
During the Cold War, Bulgaria was widely seen as a staunch Moscow satellite under the leadership of Todor Zhivkov. Fifteen years later, after the fall of the Soviet Union, it is on its way to joining the West through N.A.T.O. and European Union membership (although much later than other former Warsaw Pact nations).
On April 28, 2006, Bulgarian Foreign Minister Ivaylo Kalfin and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice signed the Defense Cooperation Agreement, a ten-year agreement that allows for up to 2,500 U.S. troops to be stationed in Bulgaria. During rotation, troop number may increase to 5,000 for a period of 30 days. The American troops will be stationed in four Bulgarian bases: the Novo Selo Training Area, the Bezmer Air Base, and the Graf Ignatievo Air Base. The U.S. Embassy in Bulgaria explains that there will be no "U.S. military bases" in Bulgaria. These are and will continue to be Bulgarian bases under Bulgarian flag and under Bulgarian command, which will be shared by U.S. troops for training purposes.
Not all Bulgarians are in favor of having American troops in their territory, Volen Siderov, the leader of the nationalist Ataka party, has declared that "the U.S. bases will make Bulgaria a target for terrorists." N.A.T.O. Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer has also shown skepticism about the U.S. bases. Speaking to Bulgarian National Radio 1, he declared that, "the agreement on the establishment of U.S. military bases on Bulgarian territory is a bilateral agreement between Bulgaria and the United States. I cannot see how N.A.T.O. could benefit from those bases at present…At this stage, I do not envisage N.A.T.O. utilizing those military facilities."
In addition, the U.S. State Department announced last year that the United States and Bulgaria signed an agreement to support joint law enforcement projects in Bulgaria. That June, members of Oregon Air National Guard's 173rd Fighter Wing traveled to Bulgaria for air-to-air exercises with local units at the Graf Ignatievo air base.
Why Bulgaria Matters
The size of Bulgaria's military is not the reason for Washington's interest in befriending that Slavic country. Geographically speaking, Bulgaria provides the U.S. (and N.A.T.O.) a greater presence in the Black Sea, through which there are plans to build oil and gas pipelines. Also, it is close to the former Yugoslavia, a place of constant tensions, particularly in the last decade. More importantly, the Balkans are a transit zone for illegal narcotics into Europe. In addition, it is relatively close to countries of the Caucasus, like Georgia, an ever-more important friend of the United States.
The bases allow the U.S. to keep increased control of the country and the Greater Middle East region, as Washington now has a military presence in the south (America's 5th fleet is based in Bahrain) and will have a presence in the north through nearby Bulgaria.
Another reason for befriending Bulgaria had to do with a "what if" scenario. Namely, what would have been the future of Bulgaria if it had not joined Western European organizations? Bluntly put, if Brussels did not accept Bulgaria as a N.A.T.O. member, there was the possibility that Bulgaria could have fallen into another country's sphere of influence, namely Russia.
In recent years, Central Asian countries like Uzbekistan have slowly moved back toward Moscow's protection after a short romance with the West. In Uzbekistan's case, this was prompted by the condemnation Islam Karimov received because of the Andijan massacre in May 2005. Other countries, such as Belarus, still see Moscow as their natural ally. If Bulgaria had not been accepted into N.A.T.O. in 2004, a possible scenario is that it could have floated back to being Russia's trusted ally in southeastern Europe, which in turn could have made the country a security issue for the West.
Russia, thanks to its wealthy coffers, is once again pushing for an aggressive foreign policy by looking for potential allies throughout the world. The recent summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is one example of these new developments. When it comes to Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, it would not be surprising if Moscow were to attempt to strengthen its position by strengthening the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). In a hypothetical scenario, Russia perhaps would have gone as far as inviting Bulgaria for C.I.S. membership, had Sofia not joined N.A.T.O. and the E.U. Geopolitics and alliances with powerful nations are important, particularly for small countries like Bulgaria.
How Bulgaria's Enthusiasm Affects Mediterranean and Balkan Geopolitics
Bulgaria's friendship with the U.S. must be put in the context of how it has affected the balance of power and national interests among other regional states.
A close Washington-Sofia relationship comes at a time when there is a major change going on in the Russian Federation. Now that oil and gas revenues, combined with Vladimir Putin's tough leadership, have managed to put Russia back in order (compared to the troubled 1990s), Putin is beginning to look to his foreign policy and his military in order to project Russian interests abroad and re-establish Russia's traditional spheres of influence.
Recently, a number of Russian military officials have discussed bringing the Russian navy back to the Mediterranean, which would, by default, mean a reinvigorated presence in the Black Sea. "The Mediterranean is an important theater of operations for the Russian Black Sea Fleet," Russian Admiral Vladimir Masorin said. He also noted that the fleet's zone of control extended through the Black and Mediterranean seas toward the Atlantic Ocean. "We must restore a permanent presence of the Russian navy in this region" he added. Russia, understandably, wants to keep U.S. military personnel away from the Black Sea region and maintain the status quo, through which it shares influence over the area with Turkey.
Even though Turkey is a N.A.T.O. member, it also wants to keep Washington away, as it sees itself as a regional power in the Mediterranean and Black Seas and does not want to lose its influence. It is too early to tell if there will be any repercussions to the Washington-Ankara relationship when the U.S. brings its troops and influence to Bulgaria and the Black Sea. A possible outcome, unlikely, but nonetheless a scenario worth considering, is that Turkey, feeling its traditional influence threatened and with no signs of joining the European Union in the near future, may turn to befriend other countries, mainly Russia.
Turkish and Russian officials may even argue that an American presence in the Black Sea is unnecessary, as there is already a regional initiative to keep the Black Sea region secure, namely BLACKSEAFOR. This initiative began on April 2, 2001 between Turkey, along with Russia, Georgia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine to promote peace and stability in the Black Sea region, as well as to boost regional cooperation activities and develop good neighborly relations.
On August 6, Turkish naval forces took over the command of BLACKSEAFOR from Russian Naval Forces with a ceremony at Golcuk Sea Base. Ironically, this occurred almost in parallel with the USS Forest Sherman's docking in Bulgaria.
Likewise, by becoming too close to the U.S., Bulgaria may be putting at risk historical ties to other countries as well as possible friendships with new allies. Throughout the 1990s and the early part of this decade, Bulgaria, much like Romania, was split between befriending the U.S. and "old Europe" (namely powers like France, Germany and Great Britain) and retaining historical relations with both Russia and the Arab world. Befriending Washington could very likely put these relationships at stake, which would jeopardize commerce, foreign investment and future political relations.
Putting Bulgaria in Perspective
In many ways international relations are like a geopolitical chess game where governments have to think of the consequences of every move they make. During Soviet times, Bulgaria was Moscow's trusted ally in southeastern Europe, so much so that Washington hardly ever made attempts to improve relations with the country. In reality, Todor Zhivkov's decision to remain an ally of Moscow meant that he could stay in power indefinitely, and he probably realized that trying to break away from Soviet Moscow would have earned his dismissal. Hence, he decided to keep his allegiance to the Communist cause. Today, policymakers in Sofia have decided that "the West," meaning membership to organizations like N.A.T.O., the European Union and befriending Washington, is in their best interest.
Due to Bulgaria's unique geopolitical location, policymakers in Sofia will have to balance very carefully whom they befriend in the future, namely relations with N.A.T.O./European nations and with the United States. Every government has its own interests and it is important for Sofia to remember that what pleases Washington does not necessarily make leaders in Brussels and around Europe happy. In addition, Bulgaria should not forget its historical ties with countries around the Balkans, the Arab world and Russia.
It is unlikely that Bulgaria will become a target for terrorists because of its acceptance of U.S. troops, but it is certain that the Kremlin will keep its eye on developments in the country for years to come. Sofia needs to keep in mind that Washington's main interest in Bulgaria, just like Moscow before, is because of the country's geographical location in the Black Sea.
Report Drafted By:
W. Alejandro Sanchez
The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of enquiries@pinr.com. PINR reprints do not qualify under Fair-Use Statute Section 107 of the Copyright Act. All comments should be directed to comments@pinr.com.
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=678&language_id=1
17 juillet 2007
Putin Suspends Participation in CFE Pact Because of Romania and Bulgaria
Vladimir Putin, president of the Russian Federation signed on Saturday a decree, according to which Russia suspends its participation in a key pact limiting military forces in Europe.
The decree states that Russia’s decision is connected to “the exclusive conditions related to the content of the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty from 19 November 1990 concerning the safety of the Russian Federation and requiring immediate steps”.
An annex to the decree points that Russia suspends the CFE treaty “until the NATO countries ratify Agreement for adaptation and start conscientiously abide by this document”.
Another exclusive condition is the planned setting of US conventional force on the territories of Bulgaria and Romania, which will “affect negatively” the adherence to the group restrictions of the CFE treaty.
The decree enters into force on the day of its signing.
http://international.ibox.bg/news/id_715680017
13 juin 2007
Sofia’s role in big player’s game
| 13 June 2007 | 15:56 | Figaro/FOCUS News Agency |
The visit of the US president George Bush to Bulgaria on June 10th and 11th stresses on the country’s strategic role in the Balkans as an EU Member State.
The US - Bulgaria relations could not be subject to discussions. If there is any “anti-Americanism” in the country at all, it is expressed either on behalf of extreme representatives or carefully in connection to Bulgarian civil and military casualties in Iraq.
The Bulgarian partnership with USA was beyond any doubt after socialists came into office after the parliamentary elections in June 2005. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) forgot quickly about the objections it took while being in opposition as it was forced to form a coalition with the party of the former PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg Gotha and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF). It was considered that after former communists came back into power the government would turn towards Moscow again. However in practice the changes in the government did not lead to any unexpected departure from the Bulgarian foreign policy.
The two “pillars”
The European Union, which Bulgaria joined on January 1st 2007, and the USA remain the two main “pillars” that Bulgaria wants to be supported by. Prime Minister Sergey Stanishev used to ask why should we choose adding that it was equal if someone should choose between his mother and father. John Beyrle, American Ambassador in Bulgaria, goes even further saying: “More EU, means more USA in Bulgaria”.
Military Bases
Sofia withdrew the Bulgarian contingent from Iraq by the end of 2005 but in February 2006 the Parliament approved sending of another 120 rangers to Ashraf, north of Baghdad. Later in April during the visit of the American state secretary to Bulgaria an agreement was signed that allowed the USA to use 3 Bulgarian military bases for a period of 10 years. Potentially the bases could be used for attacks against Iran in case of war. According to this agreement 2 500 soldiers will arrive in the country by autumn 2007.
However the agreement vexed Moscow that continues to be a powerful strategic partner of Bulgaria. Anyway Sofia managed to resist the Russian pressure.
President George Bush came to greet namely this “ally” and the Bulgarian government does not hide its pride after her important “geopolitical role” was acknowledged. Because the USA as well as the EU are extremely careful in relation to the stabilizing process in the Balkan where the Kosovo issue starts embarrassments. They are concerned about the diversification of the energy sources. Casting a look at the Black Sea region and beyond Caucasus they seek ways for more petroleum and gas pipelines with sources in Central Asia in order to release themselves of the big dependence on the Russian pipeline infrastructure. At the same moment is not passive and plans opening new and reinforcing old transit lines.
Bulgaria takes its deserved position in this battle because of its geographical location. Washington knows this as well as Moscow and Brussels. Thus Sofia paves the way to the game of the “big” hoping to receive support in the case with the Bulgarian nurses in Libya and to achieve lifting visa restrictions for Bulgarian citizens. However the hopes for the second are unlikely to fulfill, as the American administration is more prone for visa regime expansion than for its abolition, “Figaro” wrote.
12 juin 2007
Traité FCE: Moscou envisage de suspendre sa participation, pas d'en sortir
VIENNE - Moscou envisage de suspendre sa participation au Traité sur les Forces conventionnelles en Europe (FCE), mais pas d'en sortir, a déclaré lundi le chef de la délégation russe Anatoly Antonov à la veille de la conférence extraordinaire des pays signataires à Vienne.
Il a aussi précisé à la presse que la Russie ne voulait pas débattre du projet de bouclier antimissile américain, ni de la présence de ses troupes en Moldavie et en Géorgie, mais voulait parler en revanche des nouvelles bases américaines en Bulgarie et en Roumanie, à la réunion prévue jusqu'à vendredi.
"Nous ne parlons pas de nous retirer, mais de suspension (...). Nous envisageons un moratoire", a déclaré à la presse M. Antonov, un haut responsable russe des questions de sécurité. La menace avait été soulevée par le président Vladimir Poutine le 26 avril.
Le traité FCE, signé en 1990 pour tenir compte de la fin de la Guerre froide, limite le déploiement d'armes en Europe.
La Russie a demandé la convocation d'une conférence extraordinaire surtout parce qu'elle "est incapable de mouvoir librement ses troupes sur son territoire", a expliqué M. Antonov. "C'est à nous de décider quelles forces armées nous voulons déployer", a-t-il dit à propos des "limitations inéquitables" qu'impose le traité.
Irritant fort M. Poutine, la question du bouclier antimissile, que Washington veut installer en République tchèque et Pologne pour prémunir l'Europe d'éventuelles attaques de pays comme l'Iran, ne sera en revanche pas abordée à la conférence. "C'est un problème absolument séparé" qui est abordé à d'autres niveaux, a déclaré M. Antonov.
En revanche, la création de bases américaines en Bulgarie (où était lundi le président américain) et en Roumanie sera bien abordée à la réunion des 30 Etats signataires au siège de l'Organisation pour la sécurité et la coopération en Europe (OSCE).
"Nous avons de graves inquiétudes", car cela va "impliquer le déploiement de troupes américaines" dans ces deux pays, jadis alliés de l'Union soviétique, a ajouté M. Antonov.
Le responsable russe a aussi refusé d'examiner une récente proposition des Etats-Unis et de l'Otan pour sauver le traité FCE tel qu'"adapté" en 1999 à Istanbul.
Les Occidentaux refusent de le ratifier tant que les troupes russes n'auront pas totalement évacué la Géorgie et la Moldavie, deux anciennes républiques soviétiques.
Ils ont donc proposé, le 5 juin à Bruxelles, à la Russie d'accepter une force de paix multinationale en Transdniestrie (entité séparatiste pro-russe en Moldavie).
La réunion de Vienne n'est pas le forum approprié pour discuter du sujet, a répondu M. Antonov, selon qui la Russie a rempli ses obligations découlant d'Istanbul.
Le traité FCE plafonne les forces armées et les équipements classiques des deux anciens blocs et prévoit des mesures pour renforcer la confiance (annonce des grandes manoeuvres) et la transparence (inspections réciproques).
Si les Russes devaient déclarer un moratoire, ils refuseraient les inspections, n'enverraient plus d'experts et ne fourniraient plus d'informations, mais ils n'augmenteraient pas pour autant le nombre de leurs chars d'assaut par exemple, a noté le général Evgueni Boujinski, numéro deux de la délégation.
(©AFP / 11 juin 2007 20h06)
http://www.romandie.com/infos/news2/070611180628.x25jrl29.asp
11 juin 2007
Bulgaria not protected by US missile defense system -FM
| 10 June 2007 | 21:52 | FOCUS News Agency |
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Sofia. Bulgaria's Vice President and Foreign Minister Ivailo Kalfin said Sunday that from the geographic standpoint, the proposed US missile defense system would protect the US and a number of European states, but technically left Bulgaria, Romania, Greece and Turkey unprotected. Speaking to Kuwaiti News Agency KUNA, he said such a defense system had to be implemented under NATO in order to ensure complete defense and security cover for all member countries. Kalfin said his country sought equality in this respect within the framework of NATO, adding that this issue would be brought up with US President George W. Bush, who is scheduled to arrive here later tonight. Earlier, the Bulgarian foreign minister said in a press conference that his country's officials would discuss, among other issues, their concerns over the missile defense system that the US intended to set up in the Czech Republic and Poland. . |
10 juin 2007
Friendship with USA Won't Spoil Bulgarian-Russian Relations
The official reason for US president George Bush's tour in Europe is the G8 summit, but the choice of the countries and the succession of his visits carry a message about Central and Eastern Europe's importance to the American policy both in the sphere of security and in the economic cooperation between Europe and America.
Bulgaria turned to be one of the most successful countries in Southeastern Europe. It became a member of NATO and the EU, it proved to be a staunch ally, its partners put their trust in it. And when there is trust new perspectives open - projects which will guarantee maximum security to Bulgaria. Our cooperation will result in strengthening the country's anti-aircraft defence and turning Bulgaria into a center for coordination of air space protection.
The joint military facilities in the Bulgarian territory don't pose a threat to Russia. Neither NATO nor the USA, and least of all Bulgaria, are hatching any aggressive plans against Moscow. The military bases have a clear purpose - preparation of rapid-reaction operations to eliminate sources of risks for Europe.
That's why the statement that Russia will direct its missiles against our country, is hard to comment. These words don't contain any explanations or arguments - the only message they send is determination and to some extent - a threat. This is neither the tone nor the logic the relations between Russia and the USA, Russia and the EU, Russia and Bulgaria should follow. Russia is not Bulgaria's enemy.
Only several weeks ago, President Vladimir Putin heartily welcomed Bulgaria's Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev in Moscow.
In my opinion, the Kremlin's current rhetoric has a rather internal political significance; it's a kind of a reminiscence from the past - the past of rigid control and unilaterally taken decisions. The future, however, belongs to cooperation and dialogue.
Velizar Shalamanov
Military Expert
http://standartnews.com/en/article.php?d=2007-06-07&article=5027
Moscow frowns on the meeting in Sofia
| 10 June 2007 | 02:00 | FOCUS News Agency |
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Sofia. "Russia is concerned over US President George W. Bush's visit to Sofia," the Russian newspaper Vremya Novostei wrote, as the online English edition of Standart newspaper reported. |
07 juin 2007
BULGARIA AND ROMANIA’S ANTI-MISSILE PROTECTION LEFT TO NATO- ROMANIAN MEDIA
Bulgaria and Romania, as well as NATO’s older members like Greece and Turkey remain outside the US controversial anti-missile shield.
These countries should rely for protection on NATO, Romanian newspaper Gandul said.
NATO’s concept for the protection of its 26 members includes the positioning of tactical shield with movable cells.
NATO was currently preparing a tactical anti-ballistic missile system, Gandul said. The system was initially planned fro protection of NATO soldiers in various conflict zones.
The alliance wanted to develop the system for protection of national territories by 2012.
Russia is concerned about the positioning of a US anti-missile shield in Europe. According to the US, the aim of the shield was protection from Iranian threat. Russia refused to accept this explanation, saying that Iran lacks missiles which could target Europe.
Before the controversy started, Russia said that it was ready to work with NATO on anti-missile protection of Russian soldiers participating in UN missions, Gandul said.
04 juin 2007
Bush défend sa politique en Irak
SOFIA, 1er juin (XINHUA) -- Le président américain George W. Bush a refusé de reconnaître avoir fait des erreurs en Irak, tout en arguant que la cause de cette guerre était "nécessaire et noble pour la paix", a rapporté vendredi la télévision nationale bulgare.
"Je ne permettrai pas à la politique d'entraver la prise de décisions importantes pour remporter la victoire", a indiqué M. Bush lors d'une interview accordée à la chaîne de télévision publique bulgare avant sa visite officielle dans le pays prévue pour le 10 juin.
"Vous pouvez penser à n'importe quelle guerre dans le passé pour déterminer si on pouvait changer certaines tactiques (au cours de la guerre), mais la décision stratégique de renverser le régime de Saddam Hussein, était une bonne décision", a ajouté le président américain.
Quant à la question d'une éventuelle compétition avec la Russie, M. Bush s'est montré optimiste sur les relations avec Moscou, affirmant qu'il ne le considérait pas comme un "ennemi".
Il a cependant admis que "le dernier conflit (avec la Russie) consiste à savoir si nous devons travailler avec nos alliés pour développer un bouclier antimissile", ajoutant que les Etats-Unis n'avaient rien à cacher et qu'ils accueilleront favorablement la participation de la Russie dans son plan "si elle le souhaite".
"Nous n'avons aucune intention d'isoler la Russie. Ce que nous sommes en train de faire, c'est de protéger notre pays et nos amis et alliés d'éventuelles attaques d'un régime dévoyé doté de missiles", a lancé le président.
Il a par ailleurs rejeté l'existence d'une menace militaire contre la Bulgarie et a promis de lui apporter son aide si un tel danger existe vraiment.
Le président américain s'est également félicité des bonnes relations entre son pays et la Bulgarie.
A l'invitation du président bulgare Georgi Parvanov, M. Bush effectuera une visite officielle dans le pays le 10 juin. La coopération bilatérale dans le cadre de l'OTAN, les questions de l'Irak, la libération de cinq infirmières bulgares condamnées à mort en Libye et le déploiement d'un bouclier antimissile en Europe centrale seront notamment abordés lors des discussions entre les dirigeants des deux pays.
http://www.french.xinhuanet.com/french/2007-06/02/content_436649.htm
14 mai 2007
Bulgarian PM: Transport Corridor 8 is government’s priority
| 13 May 2007 | 15:45 | FOCUS News Agency |
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Vidin. “Transport Corridor 8, which passes across Bulgaria, Macedonia and Albania, is a government’s priority”, Bulgarian Prime Minister Sergey Stanishev said at a press conference in Vidin, a journalist of FOCUS News Agency reported. Mr. Stanishev turned the first sod at the construction site of the Danube Bridge 2, which will connect the Bulgarian town of Vidin with the Romanian town of Kalafat. Mr. Stanishev stated that Corridor 8 had a direct relation to the economic development of the region. He stressed that talks on speeding up the works in Macedonia were underway with the Macedonian government. The Bulgarian Prime Minister added that Trakia highway, being a part of Corridor 8, was also considered a priority. |